News Roundup: May 2009 archives

Posted in: In The Black
Posted by: Asa Fitch on May 14, 2009 12:32 PM
Tags: regional roundup
In this edition: private equity comes to town, and the future of coprorate insolvencies in the UAE.

• Private equity players are moving in on the Middle East. Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, the US PE giant, recently got a license to operate in the DIFC. Citadel Capital, an Egyptian firm, also smells opportunity in the Gulf and elsewhere in the region. The moves mirror recent comments from the CEO of the DIFC that private equity activity is likely to pick up, given attractive valuations created by the financial crisis. Abraaj, the UAE's biggest local PE player, has been making some noise lately, although fundraising isn't what it used to be.

• A spate of corporate defaults isn't likely in the region, according to an Emirates Business 24/7 article. Quoting the IMF's regional head (he visited the DIFC on Sunday), the article says government budget surpluses and insulation from international markets will keep the GCC's companies from going bust. Already in the UAE alone, two property companies have gone belly-up in the past three months, however (one in Ajman and one in Ras al Khaimah), and there's been some major hand-wringing of late about bankruptcy and liquidation law in the UAE.

Comments [0] Back to top

Posted in: In The Black
Posted by: Asa Fitch on May 13, 2009 5:05 PM
Tags: regional roundup
In this edition: consumer confidence is high in the UAE, Kuwait's Investment Dar is in default, and sovereign wealth funds are said to be pulling back.

• Consumer confidence in the UAE drops. But the UAE remains among the top ten countries in the world in terms of confidence, according to new figures from Nielsen.

• Kuwait's Investment Dar, which owns half of Aston Martin, has defaulted on a $100m sukuk. It is, by some accounts, the first time a sukuk in the Gulf has gone into default. I've heard there have been others, however.

• Sovereign wealth funds "reticent" (shouldn't that be "reluctant"?) about taking risk now. They're sticking to long-term investment strategies, some people say, but they may have lost 20 or 30 per cent in 2008, if they put up numbers similar to those posted by Norway's über-transparent fund.

Comments [0] Back to top

Posted in: In The Black
Posted by: Asa Fitch on May 11, 2009 8:49 PM
Tags: economics, green shoots, morning roundup, rera
The Morning Roundup distills the top financial stories from the region and around the globe into bite-sized chunks for your daily consumption.

International story of the day: "green shoots" still emerging?

The global recession may be far from over, but some organisations around the globe continue to see positive signs. The OECD yesterday said China, Italy, the UK and France (strange grouping, that) are on the road to recovery and aren't plunging deeper into economic turmoil. There are also signs that the German economy is coming back. Even in the downtrodden US, anecdotal evidence suggests a revival, though everyone seems to agree that it's hard to see the end of the slowdown until after 2010. Banks and credit card issuers certainly haven't seen the end of it, despite stress-test results in the US that revealed the system as less at-risk than was widely thought.

Regional story of the day: it's the economy, stupid

With markets across the UAE looking for some sign - anything, people - of a sustained recovery, it hasn't been all that encouraging to be reminded of the IMF's projections of an economic slowdown for the country in 2009. The outlook for Abu Dhabi might be better - one official on Sunday said that a strong recovery in the latter half of this year and beyond was very likely. Still, the economy has been weighed upon massively by the property sector, especially in Dubai, where the Real Estate Regulatory Authority says 27 projects may be cancelled.

The rest:

We have earthquakes? [Arabian Business]
Think the current crisis is in the same league as the Great Depression? Not so fast. [Freakonomics]
David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital in New York reports to shareholders. Turns out he was one of the hedge-funders who got squeezed in that famous VW/Porsche dealie last year. Also, he lost money on Aldar. [Deal Journal]

Comments [0] Back to top

Posted in: In The Black
Posted by: Asa Fitch on May 9, 2009 12:54 PM
Tags: air arabia, bank of america, citigroup, morning roundup, shuaa, stress tests, wells fargo
The Morning Roundup distills the top financial stories from the region and around the globe into bite-sized chunks for your daily consumption.

International story of the day: US bank stress test results are released amid less-terrible-than-before economic data

It has been an interesting weekend across the Atlantic. As expected, the US government on Thursday released stress-test results for the country's major banks, and it turns out that most won't need to raise new capital. Those that do, including Citi, Wells Fargo and Bank of America, are to raise a combined $75bn by November, a lower figure than analysts expected. Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley have already raised fresh capital, though some analysts say Morgan needs way more than the $1.8bn it was told to raise. Meanwhile, GMAC, the financing arm of General Motors, appears to be in bad shape. It may need a $11.5bn bailout from the government. And America's regional banks are mired in troubles of their own, which Breakingviews says may cause a wave of mergers. Also over the weekend, American jobs figures came in, showing that people are still losing jobs, but at a slower pace than before.

Regional story of the day: Taking stock

First-quarter results continue to pour in from companies in the region, and overall, things are looking a little more positive and less uncertain than was the case a few months back. Markets have been on an upward swing lately, punctuated by better-than-expected results from a bevy of local companies late last week and into the weekend. Air Arabia's first-quarter profits went up 32 per cent; Mashreqbank also came out in the black. Shuaa Capital, the Dubai-based investment bank, reported a loss late on Thursday, but the results came out a bit better than in previous quarters. Kuwait's central bank governor said over the weekend that his country's financial system was returning to stability. Today's IMF briefing at the DIFC may shed more light on just where we stand on the path to recovery as GCC officials push towards a delayed monetary union.

The rest:

Personal finance gurus: all wrong, all the time? [The Big Money]
The US bailout won't work, a large hedge fund firm says [Dealbook]
Ratings agencies must reform, might even be controlled by investors [The Deal]
An excellent interactive chart on US banks' capital needs [WSJ]
Can it really be this bad? A cemetery in the US files for foreclosure [Freakonomics]

Comments [0] Back to top

Posted in: In The Black
Posted by: Asa Fitch on May 7, 2009 3:29 PM
Tags: bank of america, citigroup, monetary union, roundup, stress tests, wells fargo
International financial story of the day: The stress tests.

Over in the good 'ol US of A, a bunch of banks are having, uh, a little problem. Despite throwing as much TARP money as it could at them, the American government still finds some of its biggest banks underwater - Bank of America still needs $34bn and Wells Fargo $15bn. Citi is also said to need over $50bn. This may mean further government bailouts. Yet any new rescue would be on a smaller scale than many people expected: probably under $100bn in total. The banks that are still under stress may also sell parts of their businesses to raise the necessary capital, which could put some of the world's biggest asset managers on the block, including Columbia.

Regional story of the day: GCC monetary union

As The National reported yesterday, the GCC's central bank - a cornerstone of the region's push towards a monetary union - is to be headquartered in Riyadh. But not everybody's completely pleased, it would seem, as Abu Dhabi lobbied heavily to bring the bank to the UAE. Meanwhile, it remains unclear when the monetary union will formally get underway and when a Gulf currency will be introduced. Even the naming of the currency has yet to be decided, and could prompt further regional political angst. The union is viewed widely as a positive thing, however, both for intra-regional trade and for money managers and investors, who will see the ease with which they can move money and goods around increase.

The rest:

UK's highest tax rate climbs to 50%; rich flee. To Dubai?? [The Wealth Report]
No, apparently to Switzerland [Federalist]
The "Egyptian Madoff" jailed in Dubai [Zawya]
Regulation is key for Islamic finance [Arabian Business]
I'm jealous: average monthly income for a Kuwaiti family is $7,565 [Arabian Business]

Comments [0] Back to top

Subscribe

Subscribe to feed Subscribe to In The Black (RSS)

About In The Black

Search

In The Black resources

Blogs and archives

 

Blog topics

Business blogs at a glance