Everything must go

Posted in: In The Black
Posted by: Gavin DuVenage on December 8, 2009 5:52 PM



Just because it's cheap, it don't mean it won't get cheaper, my granny, who knew how to keep her pennies in her wallet, used to say. She would also give us kids a bar of Lifebouy soap each for Christmas, and tell us not to use it up too quickly.
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Lately, equity bargain hunters have begun to circle. Emerging markets investor Mark Mobius is said to be eying Dubai assets. Warren Buffet got himself a train set and other trinkets besides.

So it's tempting for a humble retail investor like myself to go looking for cheap deals. The trouble is, bottom-feeding can be the most expensive entry into the market there is.

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority must have thought it was getting a great deal when it pounced on US banking outfit Citigroup a couple of years ago, agreeing to pay $31.83 a share in exchange for $7.5 billion. Basically, the ADIC provided Citi with the cash in exchange for a dividend payable over two years, and eventually, equity in the bank.

Citigroup is now trading at around $4.03: ouch.

Which goes to show that even in a rapidly evolving market it's best to stick to fundamentals when making investment decisions. Cash flow, the price-to-equity ratio and earnings still count. Even if a share is in free-fall.

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