|
|
|
|
|
 |
Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on December 28, 2009 10:44 AM
Tags:
Abu Dhabi, bailout, bonds, credit-default swaps, debt, debt restructuring, Dubai, Dubai Holding, Dubai International Capital, Dubai World, Financial Support Fund, loans, markets, property, Sama Dubai, Tatweer
Concerns that Dubai Holding might follow in Dubai World's footsteps and seek to restructure its debts have only mounted since our story on the subject last week. 
|
|
|
|
|
Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on December 21, 2009 6:03 PM
Tags:
Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi Investment Council, ADIA, ADIC, ADNOC, Barack Obama, Brad Setser, Chrysler, Council on Foreign Relations, dollar, fiscal policy, InvestAD, liquidity, markets, oil, Rachel Ziemba, RGE Monitor, SWFs
Rachel Ziemba, an economist at RGE Monitor in New York, has updated her estimate for the accumulated assets housed at the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council.
|
|
|
|
|
I've finally managed to upload a copy of Morgan Stanley's excellent report on Dubai's debts. Not only does the report lay out a few scenarios for debt restructuring, which is pertinent to our story in tomorrow's edition about Dubai Holding, but it also includes one of the most meticulous breakdowns of Dubai's various debts I've seen so far. All the debts and maturities have been included now in our ever-lengthening table of UAE sovereign and corporate debt maturities, though since MS doesn't include exact maturity dates, I've listed them as occurring on the last day of the month they're due.
|
|
|
|
|
Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on December 14, 2009 5:38 PM
Tags:
Abu Dhabi, bailout, credit ratings, debt, debt restructuring, Dubai, Fitch Ratings, Islamic banking, Nakheel, Standard & Poor's, UAE
Abu Dhabi may have helped Dubai avoid a nasty legal battle over Nakheel's $3.5bn sukuk today, one that could have bogged down efforts to restructure the other $22bn in debt Dubai World aims to restructure, but it clearly has no desire to re-write the put option that once existed on all UAE debt. Dubai's statement today makes clear that it's only the Nakheel sukuk and Dubai World's contractors who can take full payment for granted. That means that the wave of downgrades doled out by credit-rating agencies is likely to stick for a while, as S&P and Fitch indicated today. You can read Fitch's announcement after the jump:
|
|
|
|
|
Dubai today published a new decree establishing a tribunal specifically designed to handle potential disputes between Dubai World and its creditors. You can read the decree here.
|
|
|
|
|
Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on December 12, 2009 11:50 PM
Tags:
debt, debt restructuring, Deutsche Bank, DP World, Dubai, Dubai World, Economic Zones World, Infinity World Holding, Islamic banking, Istithmar World, Jebel Ali Free Zone, Limitless, Nakheel, P&O Ferries, Port & Free Zone World
In light of Dubai World's announcement late last month even after carving out many subsidiaries it is still seeking to restructure $26bn in debt, I've revised upward my estimate of Dubai World's overall debt.
|
|
|
|
|
Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on December 11, 2009 6:26 PM
Tags:
Abu Dhabi, AIG, central bank, credit, credit ratings, crisis, debt restructuring, default, department of finance, DEWA, Dubai, Dubai World, Etisalat, Fannie Mae, Financial Support Fund, Fitch Ratings, Freddie Mac, housing, Islamic banking, Lehman Brothers, Limitless, markets, MBS, Moody's, mortgage, Nakheel, Standard & Poor's, subprime, UAE, US
The conundrum facing the three major ratings agencies -- Fitch, Moody's
and Standard & Poor's -- has always been that if they don't adjust
their credit ratings to reflect a borrower's creditworthiness soon
enough, they get blamed for anything that happens in the meantime. If the borrower defaults and the agency's rating indicated that the
likelihood was low, for example, investors tend to blame the agency for not
foreseeing problems at the borrower.
|
|
|
|
|
Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on December 10, 2009 1:22 PM
Tags:
Abdul Rahman Al Saleh, Abu Dhabi, ADIA, ADIC, bailout, central bank, credit ratings, Dubai, Dubai World, Financial Support Fund, Germany, GM, monetary policy, moral hazard, Nakheel, Nasser Al Shaikh, oil, Opel, UAE
My column today makes a case for the Dubai Financial Support Fund's decision to bring Nakheel's bondholders to the table. If Nakheel's business developing property is no longer as bright as it was before the crisis struck, and recent evidence suggests that it isn't, what sense does it make for the DFSF to bail out Dubai World and let Nakheel pay off its creditors at par?
|
|
|
|
|
Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on December 6, 2009 2:33 AM
Tags:
bonds, dollar, Dubai, emerging markets, Europe, Ford Motor, markets, model portfolio, risk, Russia, S&P500, stocks, Treasuries, US
The risk train just keeps on rolling on, so while the model portfolio had a respectable month in November, it got spanked by the broader market and has managed to gain less than half what the S&P has this year. European and Russian bonds continued to deliver reliable returns, particularly amid the dollar's continued decline. But the real story was my flutter on Ford Motor, which brought home a 15 per cent return in the month of November.
|
|
|
|
|
|
