And what a wild ride it's been. Today we published our latest analysis of the Dubai residential property market, using sales registered at RERA as provided by Reidin.com. It appears that prices may have bottomed out and, provided incoming new supply, visa uncertainties and trouble in the global economy don't rock the boat, the slump may be behind us.

That marks a significant difference from a year ago, when we predicted the crash even as many said Dubai's property boom was impervious to external factors:
Global crisis rattles Dubai's South-Asian Stalwarts

In May, we noted that while prices had tumbled by a third from their peak, they were still higher than the year before, yielding handsome returns for those who didn't make the mistake of buying at the top. The market was shifting, however, to finished properties with demonstrated quality:
Downturn reshapes Dubai's property landscape

In August, we documented how that shift was moving the market's focus to the higher end. The completion of luxurious new areas like Old Town and the Address, moreover, was pulling up the market averages even though prices at individual developments were still falling:
Welcome to the Address, the land that downtime forgot

And now here we are, with quarterly prices declining on an annual basis for the first time, but posting a solid rise compared to the previous quarter. It's too early to say for sure, but the curves appear to indicate that either,
a) prices have bottomed out and a recovery is under way, or
b) that prices are experiencing a 'dead cat bounce' as the steep falls lures a few interested buyers, but the fundamentals are still weak and more declines are in store.

I'll post the price charts as soon as our grahics wizards can put them into a web-digestible format.