Alabbar at the Summit on the Global Agenda
Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on November 20, 2009 12:56 PM
Tags:
consumers, Dubai, Emaar, immigration, Mohamed Alabbar, transport
You can watch the opening plenary of the World Economic Forum's Summit on the Global Agenda, including Emaar Chairman Mohamed Alabbar's
address, in which he blames the media for concerns about Dubai's economic well-being,
here.
One of Mr Alabbar's more interesting observations is that the crisis had such a surprisingly large impact on the Middle East because, while the region is well-versed in war and armed conflict, it has little experience in handling financial conflagrations of this sort. This jibes with what executives and bankers across the UAE say: that the nation's institutions simply weren't equipped to deal with an event of this nature. So while the UAE, and the Gulf for that matter, were relatively insulated from the full brunt of the crisis, they were much more vulnerable to these relatively gentler forces, and were limited in their capacity to respond.
Mr Alabbar also alluded to another likely legacy of the crisis -- that rid of the liquidity bubble, Dubai is now freed up to focus on its core strengths. Mr Alabbar said the government remained confident in Dubai's future becuase "it is a hub for more than 300 million people." Dubai is the region's only hub, he said, and is far and away ahead of any other aspirants. It's in this context that he accused the media of exaggerating Dubai's plight.
He didn't help his case, however, by then citing several implausible gauges of Dubai's health. Mr Alabbar said 400,000 people had moved into Dubai this year, a claim that flies in the face of simple observation -- anyone who has been in Dubai for the past year can attest that it is less crowded in almost every way. That apartments are empty is evidenced by falling rents, traffic is lighter, and shops are closing for want of shoppers.
He then predicted economic growth of 5 per cent. It wasn't clear whether he meant for Dubai or for the UAE. I managed to speak with him shortly afterwards and asked him when the government would divulge any news on its plans to sell the second half of its $20 billion bond programme. He reiterated comments to the press earlier that the issue was proceeding on schedule. He told me he was confident the sale would go through, noting that markets falling prices for Dubai credit-default swaps and lower yields on existing bonds indicated that investors were becoming increasingly confident about Dubai's prospects.
When I asked him when Emaar would dislose new details about its planned merger with the property units of Dubai Holding, he had this to say:
"This is a big merger. Maybe we're a few weeks late weeks late or four weeks late in submitting information. That's okay. It's so huge let's do a good job. And I like it that they're working hard and we're working hard to make sure that due diligence is done properly. And I think that's fair."