Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on November 30, 2009 11:47 AM
Tags:
Asia, banks, carry trade, central bank, credit, dollar, Dubai, Dubai World, Europe, Lehman Brothers, markets, Nakheel, reserves, UAE, UK
Markets are now divided over whether Dubai's bombshell last week still
represents the major event many thought it did. Most foreign exposure
to Dubai World debt appears concentrated among UK banks, and it is
unclear whether they will need to write any of it down, or that if they
did, whether it would pose much of a threat to their capital adequacy. Thus, European and
Asian markets appear to be recoiling, markets in the UAE are using
their first day back from the long weekend to register their dismay.
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Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on November 29, 2009 8:55 PM
Tags:
ADNOC, Argentina, Asia, Asian financial crisis, bonds, California, carry trade, central bank, China, credit-default swaps, currencies, current account, debt, debt restructuring, DP World, Dubai, Dubai World, emerging markets, Emirates, Europe, Financial Support Fund, IMF, Islamic banking, markets, Moody's, Nakheel, Nouriel Roubini, reserves, transparency, UAE, UK, US, Vietnam, Wall Street
There seems to be a lot of misconceptions floating around about Dubai's
announcement last week and the panicked response to it in global
markets, so I feel compelled to take a break from my holiday in a
nation that really did run up against the wall financially, Bulgaria,
to try to offer what I hope will be a few helpful thoughts on the subject.
Continue reading Dubai World redux
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Bradley Hope, our intrepid property reporter, managed to dig up more detail yesterday on the terms of Nakheel's bond than we had space to publish. But for those trying to dig deeper into what outcomes might be possible, his findings may be useful.
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Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on November 26, 2009 2:45 PM
Tags:
bonds, debt, Deutsche Bank, DP World, Dubai, Dubai Drydocks, Dubai World, EFG-Hermes, Limitless, loans, Nakheel, Port & Free Zone World
In response to queries, I'm revisiting an earlier post: " Reports of my debt have been greatly exaggerated," in which I posted estimates of Dubai World's real debts after its revelation that it had $59 billion in consolidated liabilities. This terrifying number sparked some to wonder if the treadworn estimates of Dubai Inc.'s $80 billion in debts might actually be higher or that Dubai World's debts may somehow account for half of the total.
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Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on November 26, 2009 12:09 PM
Tags:
Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi Investment Council, Al Hilal Bank, bonds, central bank, credit-default swaps, debt restructuring, DP World, Dubai, Dubai World, Emirates NBD, Financial Support Fund, Islamic banking, Nakheel, NBAD, oil
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Standard & Poor's appears to be the first to issue a reaction to Dubai's decision to appoint an administrator to oversee the restructuring of Dubai World and ask creditors for a six-month extension on the debt of the conglomerate and its subdsidiaries. That includes the $3.5 billion Islamic bond due for payment by Nakheel on Dec. 14. The move stunned analysts and traders who considered the Nakheel bond repayment a virtual lock. When a bondholder fails to pay a bond according to its original terms, even with the agreement of creditors, it triggers what ratings agencies call a "technical default." While the bond may still be repaid and creditors are not taking action, the borrower is considered more likely to seek new terms on other debts.
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Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on November 23, 2009 10:00 AM
Tags:
Asia, Barack Obama, bonds, dollar, Dubai, Emaar, emerging markets, Emirates NBD, employment, Euro, fiscal policy, immigration, interest rates, liquidity, markets, Mohamed Alabbar, stocks, Ukraine, US
Thanksgiving Day is in America a time for giving thanks, obviously:
thanks for not allowing the elements to rub out the Puritans who
established the holiday, thanks for giving white settlers dominion over
the indigenous inhabitants, thanks for all the gains we've racked up in
the markets in the past 8 months. Needless to say, when you're tucking
into a big plate of turkey, stuffing with gravy and cranberry sauce,
you're not thinking too hard about either eminent domain or adjusting
your exposure to SPX options and Ukrainian debt. So people start to
close out their positions and prepare for the Thanksgiving Day parade.
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Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on November 21, 2009 12:14 PM
Tags:
Bahrain, banks, central banks, consolidation, Dubai, GCC, Ithmaar Bank, Khalid Abdulla-Janahi, regulation, SWFs, WEF
The Chairman of Bahrain's Ithmaar Bank, Khalid Abdulla-Janahi, is here
in Dubai for the World Economic Forum's Summit on the Global Agenda and
so I had a chance to catch up with him briefly and hear his views.
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Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on November 20, 2009 3:32 PM
Tags:
Dubai, Nouriel Roubini, US, WEF
As you may have already determined, I'm writing this weekend from the World Economic Forum's Summit on the Global Agenda here in Dubai, so expect more highlights in this space as the weekend progresses. If you read nothing else this weekend, check out Nouriel Roubini's latest missive in the Globe and Mail about the divergent recovery in the US. Makes you wonder if the global economic recovery can withstand a shadow that long.
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You can watch the opening plenary of the World Economic Forum's Summit on the Global Agenda, including Emaar Chairman Mohamed Alabbar's address, in which he blames the media for concerns about Dubai's economic well-being, here.
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