There's been somewhat of a brouhaha in recent weeks over Dubai World's
disclosure that it has consolidated liabilities of $60 billion. I'm
paraphrasing, but the reaction has run something along the lines of:
SIXTY BILLION DOLLARS!!! JUMPING JEHOSAPHAT THAT'S A LOT OF MONEY!!!
MAN THE LIFEBOATS, THE ENTIRE ECONOMY MUST BE GOING DOWN!!! HOW MUCH
MORE IS HIDDEN BELOW THE WATERLINE???
Let's all take a deep breath and enhance our calm. A careful reading of Dubai World's announcement reveals that the company was disclosing something much wider and fuzzier than the money it owes directly. The figure for consolidated liabilities includes not only what Dubai World owes, but money owed and obligations due by its far-flung subsidiaries, like the Pearl Valley Golf Estates. That also includes Nakheel's upcoming $3.5 billion sukuk, which matures Dec. 14 with $4.05 billion in principal and, er, Islamic profit. That liability is particularly germane to Dubai World, since Dubai World guaranteed the sukuk when it was issued. If Nakheel can't pay, Dubai World must.
Dubai World's liabilities also includes things other than loans, bonds and sukuk. They can and do, according to bankers, include such items as land grants from the government. I know what you're thinking: a grant is a liability? In what world? A grant is something given away with no expectation of it being returned, so how could it possibly be considered a liability? Well, it can in the much less fun world of balance sheet accounting, because if a company adds a grant as an asset, it has to also add it to the liability side of its balance sheet, or the two sides will not balance.
Fahd Iqbal, head of research at
EFG-Hermes in Dubai, appears to have puzzled over Dubai World's numbers more than most and has derived the best answer so far to what any curious person will have already asked themselves: do how much does Dubai World actually owe?
Dubai World left that question tantalisingly unanswered, but according to Mr Iqbal, the best estimate is $5.5 billion. That is all in syndicated loans. The company doesn't have any bonds or sukuk. But that figure doesn't include any unpublished, bilateral loans from banks.