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Without doubt one of the most fascinating discussions of the economic mess we are in that I have read, featuring economic rock stars Niall Ferguson, Paul Krugman, Nouriel Roubini and George Soros.
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Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on May 26, 2009 3:59 PM
Tags:
Abu Dhabi, Asia, banks, capitalism, Christine Lagarde, consumers, crisis, employment, Enron, entrepreneurship, equity, Europe, executive compensation, FDI, Financial Stability Board, France, French Strategic Investment Fund, G20, Germany, hedge funds, IMF, interviews, Japan, Lehman Brothers, leverage, Middle East, Ministry of Foreign Trade, Mubadala, reform, regulation, Sheikha Lubna Al Qasimi, social safety net, SWFs, tax havens, UAE, UK, US
I sat down for coffee and a chat this morning with France's Minister of Economy, Industry and Employment, Christine Lagarde,
at the Emirates Palace Hotel. Ms Lagarde is without doubt one of the
most articulate government officials I've had the pleasure of hearing
speak, so sitting down for a tete-a-tete was, needless to say, a
special treat. Ms Lagarde is outspoken on the need for a coordinated
global system of financial regulation to prevent crises like this one
and to restore a common sense of equitable capitalism. In the course of
our conversation, though, she also dropped two very interesting bits of
news. First, that Mubadala was due on Tuesday to sign an investment
cooperation agreement with France's Strategic Investment Fund, a 20
billion Euro fund established late last year in
what many saw as a way to use government funds to prop up French
industry. Second, that the UAE's own Minister of Trade, Sheikha Lubna
Al Qasimi, was due to receive the Legion d'Honneur, France's highest
honour, early next month.
Highlights of our discussion after the jump:
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Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on May 26, 2009 9:46 AM
Tags:
Asia, autos, bailout, banks, bonds, credit, employment, Europe, GCC, Germany, Japan, loans, Ministry of Economy, NPLs, Opel, UAE
Nature always finds a way. That's what they say when a tank full of
female fish suddenly spawns young -- an immaculate conception -- or
when ferns sprout on a nuclear blast site. So it is that companies in
Europe are finding finance through investors directly
without the intermediation of badly injured banks. Just as it did in
Southeast Asia after the financial crisis there a decade ago, the
crisis this time is forcing the rapid development of corporate bond
markets to fill the gap. In this region, executives tell me companies
are arranging their own inter-company credit lines to make up for the
fact that banks will not issue letters of credit. Life is moving on.
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Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on May 25, 2009 3:24 PM
Tags:
Abu Dhabi, bonds, China, consumers, decoupling, dollar, fiscal policy, GCC, Germany, IMF, India, inflation, investment, liquidity, Ministry of Economy, monetary policy, oil, Paul Krugman, quantitative easing, recession, saudi arabia, stocks
Economists warn
that the reflation rally is ignoring a persistent global liquidity
trap. While some investors are out there busily buying stocks to beat a tumbling dollar
and inflation, Paul Krugman said in Abu Dhabi today that he's buying
under-priced municipal bonds. The problem with the logic that reflation
will work, that government printing money can fool consumers and
companies into thinking that they have more money to spend, is that
there is no part of the world where consumers and companies are sitting
on enough cash to pull the global economy out of recession.
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Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on May 25, 2009 2:52 PM
Tags:
Abu Dhabi, Asia, banks, Ben Bernanke, consumers, crisis, debt, employment, Europe, fiscal policy, global imbalances, global warming, Great Depression, interest rates, Korea, leverage, liquidity, markets, monetary policy, Paul Krugman, recession, regulation, reserves, risk, Roh Moo-Hyun, savings glut, trade, US
Feel the gloom. Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul
Krugman was in Abu Dhabi today pouring cold water on anyone still
laboring under the illusion that the economy is improving. Prof
Krugman's shock-and-awe strategy included a graph of global trade whose trajectory resembled former South Korean president Roh Moo-Hyun's political career.
"We do face extraordinary economic times," he said. Along with global trade, industrial output is plummeting, unemployment is soaring. And while the global economy is stabilising, it has yet to stop deteriorating. "Things are still getting worse but they're getting worse more
slowly."
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Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on May 21, 2009 8:37 AM
Tags:
autos, Bahrain, BIS, commodities, dollar, Dubai, Fiat, fiscal policy, food, GCC, Germany, GM, IMF, markets, Ministry of Economy, Mohsin Khan, monetary policy, monetary union, Nasser Al Shaikh, oil, Opel, recession, saudi arabia, stocks, stress tests, UAE, US
The UAE yesterday pulled out of the GCC monetary union with no explanation. The news will undoubtedly distract focus from Nasser Al Shaikh's "promotion." Monday-morning quarterbacks
say the move appears to be a smart negotiating tactic by the UAE to
re-open the debate over where to locate the Gulf Central Bank. Unhappy
with the choice of Riyadh two weeks ago and unable to push for Dubai,
many expected the UAE to settle for a neutral choice like Bahrain. But
it has become clear that Bahrain is now positioning itself as
the un-Dubai, so that may not have been palatable to the UAE either.
Pulling out of a union that still doesn't exist has no economic cost to
the UAE, analysts say. Markets shrugged: who really thought monetary union was achievable anyway?
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Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on May 19, 2009 11:12 AM
Tags:
autos, banks, China, commodities, credit, debt restructuring, dollar, Dubai Chamber of Commerce, Dubai Department of Finance, Dubai International Airport, employment, Europe, IMF, Libor, liquidity, markets, Ministry of Economy, Nasser Al Shaikh, Standard Chartered, trade, UAE, US, WEF
The dollar-flight/risk rally appears to be over for the time being.
Investors are betting on a brightening outlook for the US economy, one
that will later spread to the world, and the dollar is rallying. It
appears now that while the economy has yet to begin recovering, the
world is simply too exhausted to suffer any more shocks. Thanks to the
IMF, Eastern Europe appears to have narrowly sidestepped economic collapse (good news for western Europe's banks), and the global credit crunch appears to have peaked, a good indication of which is that US$ Libor rates are tanking. China's stimulus package is driving up commodities prices,
which economists warn could retard broader global recovery. So the
story now becomes less about contagion and more about individual
companies and countries, particularly which will emerge as stronger
players in the new, global economy. We thus begin the race to clean
up the wreckage -- the foreclosures, the restructurings, the
bankruptcies and fire sales. And in a new report, Standard Chartered
posits that things are looking up for the Gulf.
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Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on May 18, 2009 5:09 PM
Tags:
Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi Investment Council, ADIA, bailout, banks, crisis, diversification, fiscal policy, Kuwait Investment Authority, Manchester City, oil, pension funds, Qatar Investment Authority, risk, Sheikh Mansour, stocks, SWFs, WEF
It's clear from discussions this week at the World Economic Forum on the Middle East
that Gulf sovereign wealth funds remain little understood outside the
region, and even sometimes inside. There are, for example, still
growing calls for the funds to invest more inside the region to help
cushion the impact of the crisis on the local citizenry. Often, these
calls are couched in terms of accountability, failing to recognize that
the funds are not tools of fiscal policy.
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Posted in: The Current Account
Posted by: Wayne Arnold on May 18, 2009 4:26 PM
Tags:
Bahrain, Dubai, financial centres, Goh Chok Tong, Gulf, infrastructure, Ithmaar Bank, Khalid Abdulla-Janahi, media, property, Singapore, stocks, WEF
Dubai officials may complain of harsh treatment by the media, but
perhaps no one has been quicker to point out the once-booming emirate's
current travails than its own neighbours. Everyone around the region is
suffering alongside Dubai -- not least because so many Gulf investors
have so much money invested in Dubai property and stocks. Yet as the
Gulf's flagship financial centre, the bad-mouthing of Dubai finally
earned a rebuke from a friend down the street, Bahraini banker Khalid
Abdulla-Janahi. Echoing former Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong's
criticism of Singaporeans' readiness to attack their most successful as
"crabs in a bucket" pulling their most ambitious back down, Mr
Abdulla-Janahi called for an end of the backbiting during a session
this weekend at the World Economic Forum on the Middle East in Jordan.
"The day this crisis ends, Dubai is going to be the first out. They
have developed the infrastructure, so everybody will go back to them"
he said, foreshadowing one of the major themes in Sunday's session on Dubai. Then he added: "We've got to get out of this mentality of shooting down the successful."
Continue reading Crabs in a bucket
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